Indonesia plans to execute B40 in January
Because case, prices might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says
B40 will require extra 3 mln lots feedstock, GAPKI says
Malaysia palm oil standard at greatest considering that mid-2022
India may withdraw import tax hike in the middle of inflation, Mistry states
(Adds expert remarks, updates Malaysia's palm oil benchmark cost)
By Bernadette Christina
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is forecast to recover in 2025 after an expected drop this year, but prices are anticipated to remain elevated due to scheduled growth of the country's biodiesel required, market analysts stated.
The palm oil standard price in Malaysia has risen more than 35% this year, raised by sluggish output and Indonesia's strategy to increase the mandatory domestic biodiesel mix to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to reduce fuel imports.
Palm oil output next year in top producer Indonesia is expected to recover by 1.5 million metric heaps compared with a projected drop of simply over a million loads this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, informed the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.
Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research company Oil World, said he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million loads next year after a 2.5 million lot drop in 2024.
While Indonesia's output is anticipated to enhance, provide from elsewhere and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening.
Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is expected to dip somewhat next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million loads in 2024.
"We would require a healing in palm in 2025 since combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke said.
'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE
The cost surge in palm oil in the previous seven weeks has actually been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke stated, adding that it would rally by 10%-15% in if Indonesia implements the so-called B40 policy.
The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated additional feedstock of around 3 million lots will be needed for B40 implementation, deteriorating export supply.
The existing palm oil premium has already triggered palm to lose market share versus other oils, Mielke added.
Malaysian palm oil prices are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric load in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest given that mid-2022.
"Sentiment today is red-hot and very bullish, we need to beware," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian customer products company Godrej International.
He forecast the Malaysian cost around 5,000 ringgit and above until June 2025.
Mielke and Mistry prompted Indonesia to
think about delaying
B40 application on concern about its influence on food customers.
Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated top palm oil importer India to withdraw its
import task walking
enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy
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Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen Recovering in 2025, but Biodiesel
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